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Humanity’s goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, which has been totemic in climate policy for the past decade, is now almost certainly out of reach. Limiting warming to 1.6°C has become the best-case scenario for climate action, with the hope of bringing temperatures back to 1.5°C later in the century using technology to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

“1.5°C without overshoot is not attainable,” says at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Research in Germany. “You definitely therefore…