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THIS time next year, you may be living in the same house, driving the same car and doing the same job. But in one fundamental way, life on Earth could have shifted irrevocably. Spiking worldwide temperatures, boosted by a transition to an El Ni帽o climate pattern, could make 2024 the year that global warming exceeds 1.5掳C for the first time. It may not sound like much, but scientists warn it will be a totemic moment for the planet.

Undoubtedly, breaching 1.5掳C is a sign of political failure. Just eight years ago, almost every nation agreed to a binding treaty promising to hold the global temperature rise to a maximum of 1.5掳C above pre-industrial levels. Blowing past that threshold so soon will bring huge political fallout and unleash reactionary forces that could turbocharge 鈥� or cripple 鈥� the climate movement. 鈥淎ll hell will break loose,鈥� says at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Germany. 鈥淭hat is something I鈥檓 very sure of.鈥�

But beyond this discontent, there are many other impacts of crossing this threshold. It will have catastrophic consequences for people living in the hardest-hit parts of the world and bring even wilder, more unpredictable and extreme weather for all of us. If we can get the temperature back down, this period may pass. But if emissions keep climbing, the climate will become increasingly hellish. That much is clear if you consider the communities now living on the front line of climate change. Understanding their experience gives a glimpse into the future for all humanity. It might also motivate us to do more to try to reverse the damage.

The world has already warmed by 1.2掳C since pre-industrial times, caused by rising levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. According to the World Meteorological Organisation, there is now a 66 per cent chance we will see a year with warming above 1.5掳C by 2027. But scientists work on averages. A single year of this won鈥檛 count as an official breach of the 1.5掳C goal set by the 2015 Paris Agreement. For that to occur, the global average warming must exceed that figure, on average, over a 20-year period. This means we will only know for sure if we have breached 1.5掳C with hindsight. Nevertheless, Marotzke says , based on the existing warming baked into the climate system. 鈥淧retty much no matter how the emissions evolve, we will cross or reach that 1.5掳C line in the early to mid-2030s,鈥� he says. In climate terms, he warns, that is 鈥渁round the corner鈥�.

In mild regions 鈥� northern Europe and much of the US, say 鈥� life beyond 1.5掳C may not feel so different for most people. Heatwaves will be fiercer, droughts longer, wildfires more frequent and rainstorms heavier, but day-to-day life is likely to continue largely uninterrupted, at least initially. However, the story is different in regions where temperatures are climbing faster than the global average. For people living in those places, overshooting 1.5掳C of global warming could be a matter of life or death.

Ice caps melting

The impact of climate change is already being felt keenly in the Arctic, which is heating up , the victim of a feedback loop that sees warming accelerate as the ice melts and solar reflection reduces. In the northern parts of Newfoundland and Labrador in Canada, average winter temperatures have since the start of the 20th century. For the local Inuit populations, this is causing major disruption, says at Memorial University, St John鈥檚, Canada. In particular, the late and unstable formation of winter sea ice undermines traditional pursuits such as hunting, fishing and spending time in winter cabins. 鈥淲hen the ice forms, everything opens up. It鈥檚 everyone鈥檚 favourite time of the year, because you can drive everywhere,鈥� says Cunsolo. 鈥淪o when ice forms later and breaks up earlier, that takes away months of time that people have [to do that].鈥�

Photographer has lived his whole life in the Nunatsiavut region of Newfoundland and has seen the changes with his own eyes. 鈥淚n the fall, you would get a long stretch of cold weather, you would get nice strong ice forming, and then winter sets in,鈥� he says. 鈥淣ow, it is not until probably mid-January that the body of water is frozen up enough that it is safe to cross. It is getting later and later to freeze up every year, and it is melting earlier every year as well.鈥� The late freezing means Allen and his family are struggling to cross the frozen ocean to reach their winter cabin. Then, once they arrive, they worry that swings in temperature could cause the ice to thaw and crack. 鈥淚t will be 鈥�20掳C [-4掳F] one day and 2掳C [35.6掳F] the next day,鈥� he says. 鈥淥ur kids are constantly hearing us talk about whether it鈥檚 going to be safe.鈥� This isn鈥檛 an unfounded fear. Two years ago in January, a member of Allen鈥檚 community was travelling via snowmobile over the sea ice when his vehicle crashed through. The man survived, but everyone has been shaken by the incident. 鈥淭here鈥檚 a lot of questioning in people鈥檚 minds: can we trust the years of knowledge that have been passed down to us about where it鈥檚 safe to travel, because things are just changing so much,鈥� says Allen.

Throughout the Arctic, climate change is having a profound effect on the traditional culture and well-being of communities, according to Cunsolo. 鈥淵ou have people who, for hundreds of years, have relied on the cold and the snow for all aspects of culture, for language, for knowledge sharing, for connection to land and resources and for food security,鈥� she says. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a really deep, existential identity impact that the communities are experiencing.鈥�

It may seem like a local problem, but the threat caused by melting ice will reverberate around the world. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), if Earth warms by 1.5掳C, . At 2掳C of warming, an additional 10 centimetres of sea level rise can be expected, with negative consequences for 10 million people. The long-term threat is even more dramatic. For example, collapse of the Greenland ice sheet, which , would cause a 7-metre rise in global sea levels.

Sea level rise

Less dramatic rises are already having devastating effects in low-lying regions, including the tropical island nation of Vanuatu in the south Pacific. Esther Peter at the Vanuatu Meteorological and Geohazards Department says it is affecting access to water on the archipelago, by polluting freshwater wells with salt water. It is also damaging infrastructure. 鈥淸On the island of Efate] the sea is reaching the tar-sealed roads during high tides,鈥� she says. Vanuatu鈥檚 solution is drastic. In December 2022, it announced plans to relocate 鈥渄ozens鈥� of villages over the next two years. 鈥淐limate displacement of populations is the main feature of our future,鈥� the country鈥檚 climate change minister, Ralph Regenvanu, . 鈥淲e have to be ready for it and plan for it now.鈥�

When 1.5掳C has been breached, other low-lying nations and regions will increasingly face similar challenges. Vanuatu also provides a window on another problem set to become far worse for many of us: it is one of the countries most vulnerable to extreme weather events driven by climate change. In 2015, Cyclone Pam hit the archipelago. This category 5 cyclone brought gusts of wind exceeding 300 kilometres per hour and 4-metre-high tides that swept away entire villages. The storm destroyed household 鈥済ardens鈥�, traditional allotments that most islanders rely on for growing fruit and vegetables, wiping out 90 per cent of the nation鈥檚 food crops. This was followed by a severe drought that lasted for months, exacerbating food and water shortages.

People in remote villages were pushed to near starvation, says , who studied the aftermath of the cyclone and drought and now works for the World Health Organization. 鈥淭hey were really, really badly affected by that drought,鈥� she says. 鈥淭here were three or four months [where some] people reported living on one food item, like manioc [cassava] or bananas 鈥� that is all they had to eat for months.鈥� She warns that escalating climate change looks set to permanently change Vanuatu鈥檚 dietary culture. In the face of extreme storms and unpredictable growing seasons, families are increasingly abandoning home-grown produce in favour of imported food such as instant noodles. Such a shift brings with it an . 鈥淚 think we need to see climate change as less of an abstract concept and understand that real, individual people are being affected,鈥� says Savage.

Beyond 1.5掳C warming, those people won鈥檛 just be in remote locations. Increasingly, people in Western nations will start to feel the force of climate change as threats from flooding, drought and wildfires grow. Food security will become a pressing problem: in the UK, for example, in 2017 that are imported from countries where climate change poses a significant risk to crop yields. What鈥檚 more, Saleemul Huq at the International Centre for Climate Change and Development in Bangladesh believes many Western countries are far less prepared for warming beyond 1.5掳C than nations on the front line.

For some communities, however, it is already a reality. In Australia, 80 per cent of the Great Barrier Reef has been hit by severe bleaching as a result of rising ocean temperatures. Right now, the reef tends to have a few years of breathing space between bleaching events, allowing some fast-growing coral species to partially recover. The bleaching events of 2016 and 2017 left parts of the reef 鈥渄ecimated鈥�, according to , who owns Mike Ball Dive Expeditions in Queensland, which runs diving trips for tourists. But, he adds, after two or three years of regrowth it looked 鈥渇antastic鈥�. This seeming recovery is an illusion.

Goodbye coral reefs?

Bleaching events are happening more often, says at James Cook University, Australia. 鈥淲hat used to be an unprecedented event is now becoming much more frequent and severe.鈥� To make matters worse, the fastest-growing coral species 鈥� like staghorn and table corals 鈥� are also the most vulnerable to spikes in temperatures. 鈥淭he mix of coral species is changing at breakneck speed,鈥� says Hughes. 鈥淭he reefs at 1.5掳C of global average warming will be quite different from the reefs of today and the reefs of 30 years ago.鈥� , according to the IPCC. This would throw a thriving tourism industry into an existential crisis. 鈥淐ertainly, for businesses like ours, we would have to adapt and change,鈥� says Stephen. 鈥淭here鈥檚 no ifs or buts about that.鈥�

Coral die-off is just one of several 鈥渢ipping points鈥� we risk triggering by overshooting 1.5掳C of warming. These are changes that can鈥檛 be undone, even if temperatures subsequently come back down. Top of the list, along with the demise of coral, are widespread thawing of permafrost and the collapse of Arctic ice sheets, including the Greenland one. It is very difficult for scientists to judge exactly when a tipping point has been breached 鈥� some may have been passed already. The argument for cutting emissions and slowing global temperature rise is about minimising the risk of passing these triggers (see 鈥�What鈥檚 in a number?鈥�). 鈥淵ou don鈥檛 want to get into this unknown territory,鈥� says Richard Betts at the UK鈥檚 Met Office. 鈥淚f you can鈥檛 be certain, but the impacts are profound, then you want to avoid testing it.鈥�

With the 1.5掳C temperature goal slipping out of reach, this makes efforts to reverse the direction of climate change even more urgent. In the coming decades, technologies that suck excess carbon dioxide out of the environment promise to be big business 鈥� from machines that extract it from the air to solvents that 鈥渨ash鈥� it from ocean water. Pulling the temperature rise back down below 1.5掳C will rely on getting these to work at scale. We will also need the world鈥檚 forests, peatlands and other carbon sinks working overtime to remove CO₂. Yet, as the climate warms, there is a growing threat that these natural carbon stores start to collapse, warns Betts. Wildfires can wipe out forests, for example, and droughts can dry out wetlands, hampering their ability to lock away carbon.

How realistic is it, then, to expect we can wind back the climate clock after exceeding 1.5掳C? It is 鈥渢heoretically possible鈥�, says Betts. 鈥淏ut the more we overshoot, the harder it will be to get back.鈥�

Hear Simon Sharpe鈥檚 talk,
Five Times Faster: Rethinking the science, economics and diplomacy of climate change

Madeleine Cuff is an environment news reporter at New 女生小视频