El Ni帽o brings weather of opposite extremes 鈥� floods, droughts, cyclones, wildfires 鈥� to opposite sides of the planet. But we often forget that most of this extreme weather is highly predictable.
For example, all eight strong El Ni帽os in聽the past 70 years have caused drought in Indonesia. All major models predict the聽current record El Ni帽o will lead聽to a聽dry聽autumn and winter there. So聽it鈥檚 little聽surprise that Indonesia is struggling with worsening drought and wildfires. Similarly predictable effects will be seen worldwide over the next year.
Because of this predictability, some experts argue that there are no 鈥渘atural鈥� disasters. With enough preparation, rich societies should be able to withstand almost any extreme weather. Some governments, like those of California and聽Peru, have begun this preparation and聽declared states of emergency, but many haven鈥檛. China, India and some European nations have large grain stores to deal with food shocks, but the US, the UK, Canada and Australia don鈥檛.
鈥淲ith preparation, rich societies should be able to withstand almost any extreme weather鈥�
Meanwhile, the most vulnerable countries 鈥� Ethiopia, Sudan and South Sudan 鈥� have plans to prevent widespread hunger and death, but other United Nations members have provided only one-third of the necessary funding.
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Besides pledging money to those who聽need it most, investing more in the public infrastructure we use every day would pay off. UK sewers overflow and US and European power grids collapse even during 鈥渘ormal鈥� conditions, so it is no wonder they aren鈥檛 ready for extreme weather from El Ni帽o or global warming. More speculatively, there are proposals to dull the worst impacts of El Ni帽o through geoengineering efforts.
Though El Ni帽o is a natural cycle within聽Earth鈥檚 delicate climate system, it鈥檚聽within our power to avoid its worst effects. That would mean, as ever, cutting carbon emissions to halt global warming, leaving us with one less extreme to worry about. The impact of ever-growing emissions is entirely predictable, so no聽one can say we weren鈥檛 warned.
