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Denser road networks, higher levels of education and even climate change are just a few of the factors that could lead to the loss of more than 20 per cent of the world’s 7000 languages by the end of the century – equivalent to one language vanishing per month.

Based on a new model similar to those used for predicting species loss, a team of biologists, mathematicians and linguists led by at Australian National University in Canberra has determined that, without effective conservation, language loss will increase five-fold by 2100.

“This is a frightening statistic,” says Bromham, adding that her team’s estimates are “conservative”.

“Every time a language is lost, we lose so much,” she says. “We lose a rich source of cultural information; we lose a unique and beautiful expression of human creativity.”

Current language loss estimates vary considerably, with some predicting that up to 90 per cent of languages might no longer be spoken at the start of the next century.

Bromham, an evolutionary biologist, and her colleagues suspected that by borrowing modelling techniques from studies on biodiversity loss, they might be able to capture a more statistically sound view of language diversity loss.

They analysed 6511 languages that are still spoken or have ceased to be spoken – known as “sleeping” languages. They compared the languages’ endangerment status – based on which generations continue to learn and speak the language – with 51 variables related to the likes of legal recognition of the language, demographics, education policies, environmental features and socioeconomic indicators.

They found that having other languages nearby isn’t a risk factor for language loss. In fact, says Bromham, many communities become multilingual when in proximity to other languages.

On the other hand, their study suggested that being geographically isolated – living in a valley among high mountains on an island, for instance – doesn’t make people more likely to hold on to their language.

Denser road networks were associated with higher levels of language loss on a global scale, says Bromham. That could be attributed to the fact that roads increase the level of commuting between rural areas and larger towns, leading to a greater influence of commerce and centralised government and the languages associated with them.

Higher levels of education were also linked to greater loss of local language across the globe, says Bromham.

“This is a very worrying result,” she says. “But I want to emphasise that we are not saying education is bad or that kids shouldn’t go to school. Rather, we’re saying that we need to make sure bilingualism is supported, so that children get the benefit of education without the cost to their own Indigenous language competency.”

, a linguist and anthropologist at Middlebury College in Vermont who wasn’t involved in the study, finds it “both troubling and understandable that schooling would predict endangerment”.

“Schooling establishes a whole new set of practices designed to orient the student to the historically encroaching institutions,” says Nevins.

While 20th century schools were based on single language learning, modern digital technology allows for multilingualism in government institutions, including schools, she says. “With adequate Indigenous language resources, [schooling] need not lead to endangerment.”

The researchers also detected risk factors on a regional level, says Bromham. For example, larger pasture areas were associated with more language loss in parts of Africa, while in Europe, increased temperature seasonality was linked to greater endangerment, reflecting “language erosion” in parts of Scandinavia. More studies are needed to understand these connections, however, she adds.

Holding onto local languages is critical, Nevins says, as it represents a way to maintain the history and culture of Indigenous people who were “forcibly incorporated into the capitalist world system”.

“Language is a kind of proof of ancestral life, a powerful resource against political erasure, a means of reclamation,” she says. “For all of us, Indigenous languages are indispensable to understanding the nature, diversity and historic spread of human beings on our shared planet.”