The death of virtually all Britain鈥檚 ash trees due to a fungal disease will cost more than just lost habitats for wildlife and treasured woods for recreation. A new estimate of the economic cost of ash dieback, a fungal disease that arrived in the UK in 2012, puts the price tag at 拢14.8 billion.
That鈥檚 about three times as much as estimates for the Dutch elm disease crisis in the 1960s and 70s, largely because there are far more ash trees. It is also a third more than the cost of the 2001 outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in the UK.
鈥淭he message is government is not taking plant security seriously enough, this potential colossal cost is being ignored,鈥� says Nick Atkinson at the University of Oxford. He and his colleagues collected data on clean-up and replacement costs for lost trees, and took into account the lost value of ecosystems.
Advertisement
They found that over 100 years, this disease will cost the UK nearly 拢15 billion, though around half of that burden is expected to fall over the next decade. That鈥檚 because a large chunk of the costs, almost 拢5 billion, come from having to fell the trees near roadsides and in towns and cities for safety reasons.
The single biggest cost is the 拢9 billion loss of the ecosystem services 鈥� the clean air, water and carbon sequestration 鈥� that the trees provide.
The financial burden will fall overwhelmingly on public authorities, though it will hit some landowners too. Lincolnshire county council and Devon county council are estimated to be worst hit, with the latter facing a 拢30 million annual bill in tree felling.
It鈥檚 not clear whether ash dieback will kill off 135 million of the 150 million ash trees in the UK, as the new study assumes, but Atkinson says different mortality rates would make only minor differences to the final bill.
Economic cost aside, Atkinson says the death of ash, which are key in UK hedgerows and one of the few trees to grow on the country鈥檚 windswept moorlands, will be a major blow for nature and landscapes. 鈥淚t鈥檚 part of glue that holds British countryside together,鈥� he says.
Current Biology
