The world is preparing for a massive El Ni帽o that could be the strongest since 1998. That event led to the deaths of an estimated 20,000 people and caused almost $100 billion of damage. The economic and human cost of this year鈥檚 event is already starting to mount.
El Ni帽o emerges when winds blowing west across the Pacific weaken, and warm water spreads out east towards South America, dragging rainfall with it. As a result, chunks of Asia and Australia dry out, and rain is dumped on much of the Americas. The effects are felt further afield too, especially in Africa. El Ni帽os are irregular, developing at intervals of two to seven years and lasting between nine months and two years.
In sub-Saharan Africa, the International Federation of the Red Cross has as extreme flooding is predicted to worsen food shortages. This week, 鈥� some areas there are . Chile and Peru are likely to be hit hard and are .
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Already, El Ni帽o has contributed to hundreds of deaths in a heatwave in India by delaying the cooling monsoon. India is now in the midst of the worst dengue fever outbreak in years, with 500 confirmed cases and at least 25 deaths in New Delhi. Dengue is exacerbated by warmer temperatures and to El Ni帽o in other parts of Asia.
This month, El Ni帽o pushed temperatures up to near-record levels in eastern Australia. In Indonesia, illegal slash-and-burn fires used to clear land are spreading uncontrolled, stoked by the dry, hot conditions. The fires have caused the closure of 7000 schools in nearby Malaysia.
California, which is currently burning with the worst wildfire season in the state鈥檚 history, is expected to see more rain as El Ni帽o develops, but it could go too far and cause floods, as it did in 1998.
鈥淭he worst is yet to come,鈥� says at CSIRO, Australia鈥檚 national research agency in Melbourne. Some of the most severe effects will likely be in the form of tropical storms, he says, which are not only caused by El Ni帽o but exacerbated by its strength.
The El Ni帽o will intensify in the coming months and probably peak around February. The rains are yet to hit Africa and South America; marine impacts such as coral bleaching are expected to begin around December.
