The bad boy of global weather is on its way. El Ni帽o can cause floods, droughts, fires and epidemics around the world, and the next one could be a humdinger.
El Ni帽o crashes on to the scene once every four years or so as hot water emerges in the Pacific and moves towards the Americas. This can bring drought to Australia and parts of Asia, while parts of the Americas experience heavy rain, flooding and outbreaks of waterborne diseases. Pacific Islands all the way from Tonga to Hawaii experience more frequent storms. And valuable fish stocks move all around the globe, following water of their preferred temperature.
Many experts are warning of a 鈥渟uper El Ni帽o鈥� this time round. 鈥淲e have this enormous heat in the subsurface that is propagating eastward and it鈥檚 just about to come to the surface,鈥� says of the University of Hawaii in Honolulu. 鈥淚 looked at the current situation and I thought, 鈥榦h my dear鈥�.鈥�
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Similar forecasts were made last year, too, and proved wide of the mark. This time it鈥檚 different. For one thing, we are already in an El Ni帽o year, which makes it easier for an extreme one to form. 鈥淚t鈥檚 much easier to build up from warm temperatures than from neutral temperatures,鈥� says Timmermann.
Also, this year ocean temperatures seem to be coupled with atmospheric winds in a feedback loop that makes the El Ni帽o stronger, says at the CSIRO, Australia鈥檚 government research agency. US climate models, on average, are pointing to an El Ni帽o comparable to the devastating 1997/98 event, says Timmermann.
Another thing likely to give this year鈥檚 El Ni帽o an extra kick is the presence of the . A low-pressure system near Australia that boosts westerly winds across the Pacific, it helps unlock the heat fuelling El Ni帽o, says of the University of Hawaii at Manoa. 鈥淭he chance of a large El Ni帽o is quite large,鈥� he says.
Timmermann says we should be preparing, clearing rivers of debris in flood-prone areas and storing water in drought-prone areas. 鈥淭here are lots of win-win things you can do,鈥� he says. He has already installed hurricane clips on his roof, as El Ni帽o also increases the chances of hurricanes making landfall on Hawaii.
