The climate phenomenon El Ni帽o is likely to return this spring, say US climate scientists, but it is too early to predict its impact or how long it could last.
鈥淭he magnitude of an El Ni帽o determines the severity of its impacts,鈥� says Vernon Kousky of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. 鈥淎t this point, it is too early to predict if this El Ni帽o might develop along the same lines as the 1997-8 episode, or be weaker.鈥�
El Ni帽o occurs every two to seven years, when cold water in the eastern Pacific around Ecuador and Peru becomes unusually warm. This can trigger a switch in weather patterns, with potentially disastrous consequences.
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The last El Ni帽o caused extensive flooding in Peru and Ecuador and droughts in Papua New Guinea, the Philippines and Indonesia. Severe winter storms hit Chile and California.
Clouds gathering
NOAA researchers say they have identified higher than normal levels of cloud and precipitation over the equatorial central Pacific for the first time since the last El Ni帽o. Researchers say they should have a clearer idea of whether an El Ni帽o will develop 鈥� and what its impact might be 鈥� within the next few months.
鈥淭he first region on the globe to experience El Ni帽o鈥檚 impacts would be in the tropical Pacific,鈥� says Kousky. 鈥淚ndonesia is likely to get some relief from torrential rains. If El Ni帽o develops as is presently indicated, the Pacific northwest will experience wetter than normal conditions this fall.鈥�
鈥淚n the US winter,鈥� he adds, 鈥淟ouisiana eastward to Florida, and possibly southern California, could also experience wetter than normal conditions, and the northern Great Plains will experience warmer than normal conditions.鈥�
NOAA hopes long-range forecasts of El Ni帽os like these will help save lives and property. The agency says preparations made in California after advanced warning of the last El Ni帽o reduced losses during the storms by about $1 billion.
