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The human form of mad cow disease is likely to claim about 200 British
victims in total, far fewer than earlier predictions. There have been 111
confirmed or probable cases of vCJD in the country, and French epidemiologists
say that data on 97 of the patients allows them to make the most accurate
estimate yet of the disease’s incubation time. Alain-Jacques Valleron of the
Hôpitaux de Paris found that the likely average incubation period is 16.7
years. This suggests that there will be a maximum of 403 cases, with 205 being
most likely. But the model doesn’t incorporate the possibility that genetic
susceptibility to the disease may vary between people.