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Inadequate monitoring equipment may have prevented Filipino vulcanologists
predicting the eruption of Mount Mayon last week. The sudden expulsion of
hot ash and mud on 2 February killed more than 60 people and caused widespread
damage around the 2462-metre volcano in the central Philippines.

‘We need more sophisticated instruments,’ according to Rene Solidum,
a geologist with Phivolcs, the Philippine Institute of Vulcanology and Seismology.
Solidum admitted that Phivolcs does not have a complete set-up for monitoring
the volcano’s activity. The institute has three observation stations on
the volcano, but only one tiltmeter to detect swelling of the volcano caused
by intrusions of magma.

By contrast, Mount Sakurajima, an active volcano in Japan is wired up
with dozens of tiltmeters. One of them, 28 metres long, cost 300 million
yen ( £170 000). The prohibitive cost of monitoring instruments highlights
the problem developing countries have in adequately funding disaster prediction
programmes.

‘We need many different ways with multiple instruments to predict discrete
volcanic events,’ says Hiromu Ikada, a vulcanologist with Hokkaido University.
‘If you were to locate tiltmetres near the summit (of Mount Mayon) I think
you may be able to detect crustal deformation before an explosion. If there
had been more instruments there would have been a better chance of prediction.’

Geologists at Phivolcs were on the defensive last week as they faced
criticism for failing to predict the explosion. The mayor of nearby city
of Legaspi even announced that he will sue the institute for damages. ‘Our
budget is limited,’ admits Leonila Bautista of Phivolcs, ‘but we know the
volcano’s behaviour well, and even with more instruments we wouldn’t have
been able to detect this type of volcanic activity before it happened.’