Claims made by the National Science Foundation during the 1980s that
the US faced a shortage of scientists and engineers were based on a flawed
scientific study, according to testimony at a congressional subcommittee
last week.
Senior members of the NSF, including the former director Erich Bloch,
quoted the study in important policy speeches and sometimes before congressional
committees. The idea influenced decisions made by Congress.
鈥楿ntil now no one has poked holes in the NSF, but people will look sceptically
at what they say in future,鈥� said a source in Congress.
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At the hearing, before Representative Howard Wolpe鈥檚 subcommittee on
investigations and oversight, witnesses said that the projected shortages
have not materialised. In fact, the unemployment level among scientists
and engineers is higher than average.
The study, undertaken by Peter House of the NSF鈥檚 Policy and Research
Analysis Division, predicted shortages beginning a few years ago, and said
those shortfalls would reach 675 000 by the year 2010.
Congressional sources say they decided to investigate the issue when
they heard criticism of House鈥檚 study from other engineers and scientists.
鈥楨rich Bloch is not a statistician or economist, so he may not have known
of problems with the data on which the study was based,鈥� said one official.
House鈥檚 work did not go through peer review, nor did the NSF officially
publish the report. The NSF told the subcommittee that procedures are now
in place to prevent the same thing happening again. However, John Fluharty,
a spokesman for the NSF, said that he did not know specifically what those
procedures were.
