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Confusion and lack of information in the aftermath of an earthquake
are often as much of a problem as the damage from the tremor itself. But
a seismologist in Southern California has set up a system that, within minutes
of a tremor, provides organisations such as railway companies with estimates
of the size, location and likely effects of the earthquake.

Hiroo Kanamori of the Seismological Laboratory at the California Institute
of Technology in Pasadena set up the pilot project in collaboration with
the US Geological Survey. The system is called CUBE, for Caltech-USGS Broadcast
of Earthquakes, and is paid for by subscribing companies. It employs a rapid
technique for analysing seismic signals, powerful computer hardware and
a commercial paging network. ‘If subscribers have the system, they can
get the same information we have here anywhere in Southern California,’
says Kanamori.

CUBE sends details of the earthquakes directly to subscribers’ personal
computers, plotting on maps on the screen what has happened and where. ‘Depending
on their needs, the companies can display their own facilities, rail lines,
pipes or phone cables, on the same screen as the earthquake information,’
says Kanamori. ‘And the system allows us to send them extra text too.’

News of the project was received with enthusiasm at an international
meeting of seismologists in Santa Fe last month. ‘It’s almost as if the
news of an earthquake in San Francisco reaches Los Angeles before the seismic
waves,’ says Roger Clark, a seismologist from the University of Leeds.

CUBE depends on a network of 250 seismometers operated by Caltech and
the US Geological Survey which are linked directly to the Seismological
Laboratory by radio or phone lines. Seismologists at the laboratory then
use a very fast processing technique known as real-time seismology.

The system has taken several years to develop, says Kanamori. ‘The software
first checks if a signal is an earthquake, because noise can give false
alarms. Once identified, it locates the quake and determines the size. We
have state-of-the-art instruments that provide very high-quality information,
so we can determine the type of faulting and the directions of movement
in a few minutes.’

The system is already tried and tested. A sizeable earthquake, magnitude
5.8, hit the Pasadena area on 28 June last year. The information supplied
to the Santa Fe Railway Company, one of CUBE’s subscribers, enabled it to
close down its system quickly and reopen earlier than otherwise. The company
had to stop the trains anyway to check the track. But Kanamori says, ‘if
they save one hour of closure, they save $40 000. This time they saved
two hours.’ Subscribing companies also benefit in general from a better
reputation for safety.

The initiative for this project came from research, but it has succeeded
through commercial funding, without government help. Five organisations
already subscribe to the system, and Kanamori hopes for others, but so far
all have been private companies. The State of California, which is responsible
for emergency services, has not yet joined. ‘I don’t know why,’ says Kanamori,
‘whether it’s an administrative problem or fiscal. We can’t afford to do
it for free.’

Kanamori and his team are learning from the contact. ‘We have continuous
feedback from the companies. Now we know what information is needed and
in what form, we can be much more effective.’ An added benefit for the seismologists
comes from such a direct application of their skills. ‘We’re working in
the real world’, says Kanamori. ‘It’s a very effective way of using modern
science and technology for society.