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ONE OF THE world’s richest hunting grounds for cod may be running short
of fish – and out-of-work fishermen are blaming scientists. The fishermen
are claiming that the thinning numbers of cod on the Grand Banks, off the
Canadian East Coast, are the result of scientific bungling over assessments
used by the federal government to set quotas and issue fishing licences.

Earle McCurdy, Secretary of the Fishermen, Food and Allied Workers Union,
says that ‘we sounded the alarm much earlier’ than 1988, when the problem
first came to light. But, he adds ‘our concerns were dismissed by the government.’
Officials claimed the phenomenon was temporary, perhaps due to a seasonal
drop in water temperature around the banks. Meanwhile, the government encouraged
more investment in the fishing industry, and too many fishermen ended up
chasing too few fish.

Fish stocks are higher than 20 years ago, but scientists are concerned
about the unexpectedly slow growth in the biomass and a drop in fish size
since 1984. To help conserve stocks, the federal government sharply sliced
northern cod quotas, from 295 000 tonnes in 1988 to 197 000 tonnes, forcing
fishermen to tie up their boats and plants to close.

Not all agree that the northern cod is in danger. Murray Cooligan, vice-president
of the processing company National Sea Products, says ‘our trawlermen say
the fishing has never been better’.

He claims scientists simply cannot find all the fish. For instance,
he says that their survey boats cover a huge area at random and don’t follow
temperature gradients to where cod congregate. Nor are they equipped to
use the latest hydro-acoustic techniques. Jean Jacques Maguire, a senior
scientist with the Canadian Department of Fisheries and Oceans, admits ‘forecasting
the weather is better’.

Nevertheless, the report of a federally appointed task force supports
the fishermen’s contention*. The report published earlier this month says
that mortality rates since 1977 have been ‘at least’ double that predicted
by scientific models.

These claimed fishermen only took 20 per cent of the ‘exploitable’ biomass
– fish old enough kill – while the true figure hovered closer to 45 per
cent.

‘Lots of errors led to faulty conclusions,’ says Lesley Harris, president
of Memorial University in Newfoundland and head of the task force. The models
failed to account for electronic tracking devices improving catching efficiency,
for instance. Wasteful practices such as ‘stripping off’ – landing only
the best fish and throwing the rest overboard – meant that perhaps 20 per
cent of the catch was not counted.

Also cod can live for 15 years, so data for this length of time is needed.
But studies do not go back that far. And with environmental changes and
‘irresponsible and cynical’ pirating by EEC trawlermen, says Harris, ‘our
mathematical models were imprecise, to say the least’.

Fortunately, he explained, ‘fish are an infinitely renewable resource
so we can build them back’. His report recommends not just reducing the
fish kill by half, but total overhaul of fish assessment.

* Independent Review of the State of the Northern Cod Stock, The Communications
Directorate, the Department of Fisheries, Canada.