The world鈥檚 failure to act seriously on cutting greenhouse gas emissions means meeting its 1.5掳C climate change goal is implausible, according to two scientists calling for more honesty about the path Earth is headed for.

In a review of global action on climate change, including pledges at last year鈥檚 COP26 summit, and at Concordia University, Canada, said social, political and technological inertia meant the Paris Agreement鈥檚 temperature target was likely to be missed.

鈥淚t鈥檚 a call for honesty and action. Given the direction we are going right now, there is no prospect of coming close to 1.5掳C,鈥� says Matthews. Global emissions need to fall 43 per cent by 2030 to have a good chance of meeting the target, but have been steadily marching upwards for decades.

The study follows recent research showing there is now an almost 50-50 chance of temporarily exceeding the goal within five years. Other analysis has shown there is a high chance of breaching it long-term, even in the unrealistic event of global emissions stopping overnight.

However, Matthews says while political and corporate efforts to cut emissions are falling short of what is needed, there have been signs of progress. The world is now on course to warm by between 2.5掳C and 3掳C by the end of the century, he says, not the 4掳C to 5掳C that was feared around a decade ago. 鈥淲e have made progress, there are options, but we haven鈥檛 really embraced those options at the level [needed],鈥� he says.

Car-free days in cities, revised motorway speed limits and cutting business air travel offer ways to reduce emissions immediately, Matthews and Wynes suggest. Such quick wins will need to be accompanied by major changes such as decarbonising energy grids and widespread adoption of electric cars and heat pumps, alongside behaviour changes including dietary shifts, they add.

The pair estimate the world鈥檚 remaining 鈥渃arbon budget鈥� for 1.5掳C 鈥� the amount the world can emit before the goal is beyond reach 鈥� to be 360 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide, or about nine years of current annual emissions. 鈥淚f we鈥檙e actually serious about the 1.5掳C window, we have to try harder,鈥� says Matthews.

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Sebastian Mernild鈥檚 presentation pulled no punches. As more than 40 countries met in Copenhagen last week to discuss progress since 2021鈥檚 COP26 climate summit, the University of Southern Denmark glaciologist greeted ministers with jagged red lines showing rising global temperatures. He reminded them that emissions are still growing. And he told them their goal of holding temperature rises to 1.5掳C needs nothing less than 鈥渞apid, deep and sustained鈥� emissions cuts.

鈥淭hey all know what we are facing scientifically regarding 1.5掳C,鈥� says Mernild. Whether they are acting on that knowledge is another question. Half a year on from a deal at COP26 in Glasgow, it is far from clear if countries are delivering on the commitments they made.

COP26 president Alok Sharma said today that failure by world leaders to deliver on their pledges would be a 鈥渕onstrous act of self-harm鈥�. Speaking in Glasgow, he said he could understand why action to cut emissions had been pushed out of the spotlight by the war in Ukraine and the cost-of-living crisis, but reminded his audience that 鈥渃limate change is a chronic danger鈥� the world couldn鈥檛 ignore.

Sharma added that Russia鈥檚 invasion had shown that 鈥渃limate security is energy security, and we must break our dependency on fossil fuels鈥�.

One of the headline promises of the Glasgow Climate Pact was that this year, 196 countries would 鈥渞evisit and strengthen鈥� their plans for curbing emissions by 2030. Without stronger action plans, the target of keeping below .

Sharma said that the UK government is looking at ways to strengthen its 2030 national climate plan, but to date, a blueprint that goes further than what they promised before or at COP26.

Those close to the UN climate talks process say that it is unlikely any action will be seen on those plans until much closer to the next big climate summit in November, COP27. That is being held in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, raising expectations that at least the host nation will cough up a new plan. Beyond that, figures in climate diplomacy think the best that can be hoped for in revised plans are tougher emissions targets for individual sectors, such as forests or cars, rather than more sweeping targets.

at the London School of Economics, a former lead climate negotiator for the European Union and the UK, says large, developed economies had already set ambitious targets ahead of COP26. The US promised to cut emissions in half by 2030. But none of the big emerging economies, with the exception of South Africa, made significant moves.

鈥淚鈥檓 afraid it was pretty clear in Glasgow that we were unlikely to see these revisions [to climate plans in 2022]. Because if they were going do it, they would have done it in Glasgow. All the signals are that it鈥檚 not going to happen in Sharm El-Sheikh, unfortunately,鈥� says Betts. There is no sign that Egypt is putting pressure on other countries to raise their ambitions, as the UK did ahead of COP26.

鈥淚 see very little political energy being put into that right now,鈥� says Carne Ross of the think tank E3G, referring to the likelihood of tougher climate plans. 鈥淚 think the big issue on the climate front at the moment is Ukraine. It鈥檚 really stealing all the political attention away from everything else,鈥� says Ross.

The US special envoy on climate change, John Kerry, the invasion is no excuse for reneging on climate action, for example by building coal plants. 鈥淭he key thing is not to give in to this notion that, 鈥榦h, Ukraine has changed everything, and so we will be building out infrastructure that we decided a little while ago that we can鈥檛 do now鈥�,鈥� he said.

One bright spot this year is that the new German government, which was formed by a coalition including the country鈥檚 Green party, is using its presidency of the G20 group of leading world economies to push for continued action on climate change. Another potential positive is that Australia and Brazil could elect governments that produce bold new plans. 鈥淚 think that鈥檚 the hope,鈥� says Ross.

There has also been some progress made on talks promised at COP26 on 鈥渓oss and damage鈥�, a potential first step towards rich countries compensating poorer ones for the impacts of climate, says at the International Centre for Climate Change and Development in Dhaka, Bangladesh.

The news is worse on other pledges made in Glasgow. Nearly 200 countries promised to embark on 鈥減hasing down coal鈥�. Coal production is forecast to increase in and the this year. And to ramp up coal mining, to cope with power demand amid a heatwave that has been fuelled by climate change and the burning of coal.

There is little progress either on a series of flashy 鈥渟ide deals鈥� made at COP26, including more than 100 countries pledging to halt deforestation by 2030. Brazil, one of the signatories to that, saw Amazon deforestation in April at the worst level since 2016, according to satellite images. 鈥淚llegal loggers and land grabbers are taking advantage of the last year of the current government,鈥� says Andr茅 Freitas of Greenpeace Brazil.

COP27 is less than six months away, but it hasn鈥檛 got an official website yet. of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recently said the 1.5掳C goal will be 鈥済one鈥� if stronger national climate plans don鈥檛 materialise by the time thousands of delegates descend on Sharm El-Sheikh. Despite the resort鈥檚 sunny reputation, that is looking an increasingly gloomy prospect.

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JUST days after it was agreed on by nearly 200 countries at the COP26 summit in November, the reverberations of the Glasgow Climate Pact were being felt.

In the immediate aftermath of the conference, the price of carbon in the European Union鈥檚 carbon market hit a record high of 鈧�66 a tonne. Scotland鈥檚 first minister Nicola Sturgeon came out against a new North Sea oil field, putting more pressure on the UK government to reconsider its approval. The European Commission set out a draft law to block imports of beef and other commodities if they are linked to deforestation.

Yet it will take a while for the Glasgow Climate Pact鈥檚 eye-catching promise to 鈥減hase-down鈥� coal to be fully adopted. For example, in October, China鈥檚 coal output hit the highest level since March 2015.

It may take even longer for the effects of the pact鈥檚 pledge to phase out 鈥渋nefficient fossil fuel subsidies鈥� to be felt, judging by the G7鈥檚 slow progress on a past commitment to end them.

The achievements of the deal reached in Glasgow, UK, will play out over decades to come. Next year will be the first big test. By the end of 2022, countries are meant to deliver on COP26鈥檚 鈥渞equest鈥� 鈥� diplomatic language that amounts to a commitment 鈥� to issue better 2030 emissions reduction plans.

鈥淚t will take a while for the Glasgow Climate Pact鈥檚 promise to 鈥榩hase-down鈥� coal to be fully adopted鈥�

Those plans must be aligned with the 2015 Paris Agreement鈥檚 goals of holding global warming to 1.5掳C above pre-industrial levels and well below 2掳C. Current plans by Australia, Brazil and Indonesia are among those rated 鈥渉ighly insufficient鈥� and in line with a 4掳C future by independent analysts. Countries that have already set a stretching target, such as the UK鈥檚 plan of a 68 per cent emissions cut by 2030, aren鈥檛 expected to upgrade their ambitions.

India announced new goals at COP26, including sourcing half of its electricity from renewables by 2030, and will be expected to submit them in a formal plan to the UN. Officially, it should have done that by the end of 2020.

One issue that lower-income countries will watch closely in 2022 is whether higher-income nations are on track to deliver the $100 billion a year of climate finance they had promised by 2020 and that they expressed 鈥渄eep regret鈥� at missing. The figure is now expected to be hit in 2023, though US climate envoy John Kerry said in Glasgow that he thinks it may be met earlier.

COP26 resolved outstanding rules of the Paris Agreement on transparency, time frames for emissions targets and a new global carbon market, which will now take years to be established. Eyes will also turn to the formation of a new independent group, announced by UN secretary general Ant脫nio Guterres at the summit, to scrutinise net-zero pledges by the private sector.

Hello, and welcome to November鈥檚 Wild Wild Life, the monthly newsletter that celebrates the biodiversity of our planet鈥檚 animals plants and other organisms. To receive this free, monthly newsletter in your inbox, sign up here.

I鈥檝e been breaking in a new pair of walking boots on woodland walks, spotting as many fungi as I can. I can鈥檛 pretend to be anywhere near an expert 鈥� the UK is home to more than 15,000 species of fungi. That number isn鈥檛 quite as daunting as it sounds, though, because many of these species are microscopic and not mushroom-forming. I鈥檝e had some successes in identifying the most common species, but I still marvel at anyone who is confident enough to eat those that they identify as edible.

This month, in the aftermath of COP26, I鈥檓 looking at actions we can meaningfully take to help wildlife and lessen the biodiversity crisis. Plus, why it pays to have really red feathers if you鈥檙e a waxbill, and a newly recognised species of octopus.

What you can do to help nature

The COP26 summit in Glasgow, UK, this month was the biggest opportunity to tackle climate change since the Paris Agreement, back in 2015. Amid all the breaking news, big pledges and grand announcements, something kept niggling at me. I couldn鈥檛 turn on the TV without an advert telling me I could 鈥渄o my bit鈥� by recycling a plastic bag or eating a veggie burger. My problem with such messages is that they are nowhere near enough to be 鈥渕y bit鈥� 鈥� anything that鈥檚 promoting easy swaps or simple lifestyle changes sounds great but is unlikely to have any impact on the problem.

Greenwashing has become a familiar concept now, and I鈥檝e written before about more meaningful action that people can take both to tackle climate change and cope with eco-anxiety. But what about the other great planetary crisis besides climate change: the biodiversity crisis? Humans and our domesticated animals now make up more than 90 per cent of the mammalian mass living on our planet. The things we do are threatening around 1 in 8 species with extinction, and just 3 per cent of Earth鈥檚 land is classed as ecologically intact.

While it鈥檚 clearly a good idea to cut down on single-use plastics and recycle more, here are four things you can do that will make much more of a difference to preserving what鈥檚 left of the world鈥檚 ecosystems.

Change how you eat

Okay, so maybe veggie burgers are at least a part of the solution. A 2018 study found that meat and dairy , but only 18 per cent of the calories and 37 per cent of the protein that we eat. Habitat loss is a major driver of the biodiversity crisis, and much of this is driven by our appetites. If we don鈥檛 eat less meat and dairy, there won鈥檛 be space for wild animals and plants on our planet.

But it鈥檚 not just about minimising the amount of land that鈥檚 used for agriculture. Farmland makes up such a significant proportion of the planet that, in my opinion, it needs to be as wildlife-friendly as possible. There鈥檚 an argument to be made that organic farming isn鈥檛 a good thing because it has lower yields so requires more land and energy. But others argue that when you take into account the full impact of land degradation and pesticide use of intensive farming methods, the dial may swing in organic farming鈥檚 favour. Organically managed land is thought to support 30 per cent higher biodiversity than conventionally farmed fields.

Whatever you choose to eat, you can know for a fact that wasting food is bad. Agriculture has such a detrimental effect on nature worldwide, it鈥檚 unconscionable that a third of food goes to waste.

There鈥檚 a lot of opportunity to make a difference here and, importantly, it鈥檚 not all or nothing. It鈥檚 better to halve your meat consumption forever, for example, than it is to attempt to go 鈥渇ull vegan鈥� for a few weeks and then completely give up.

Get serious on climate change

The biodiversity and climate crises are closely linked, and climate change is driving habitat loss and extinction. To lessen your personal contribution, you can have the biggest impact by flying and driving less, better insulating your home, switching to a green energy provider and moving your pension out of fossil fuel investments. And cutting back on meat and dairy 鈥� this one counts twice!

Support a charity or lobby group

I don鈥檛 want to minimise personal action 鈥� to rescue nature and limit climate change, we all need to make significant lifestyle changes. But let鈥檚 be clear: to succeed, the heavy lifting must be done by governments and big corporations. You鈥檒l often see advice to write to your politicians or get involved in campaigns, which can seem a bit daunting if you鈥檙e short on time or haven鈥檛 done anything like this before. So, if that applies to you, I鈥檇 recommend you first start supporting some environmental charities or non-governmental organisations who鈥檒l do the hard work for you. Pick an organisation that lobbies the government about wildlife issues that you care about and send them some of your money.

Act local

This one is about staying positive. It鈥檚 a global problem, but you鈥檒l be heartened by how much of a difference you can make at home. Garden with wildlife in mind, don鈥檛 plant invasive species and keep your bird-and-frog-killing cat indoors. Small wins, like getting your local council to let grassy verges grow long in summer, make a big difference to both your local insect population, and your morale.

Of course, all this will help, but it鈥檚 large-scale projects that will make the biggest difference when it comes to saving wildlife. My colleague Graham Lawton pulled together a vision of how countries can rescue nature earlier this year. And if the tips I鈥檝e outlined above seem disproportionately skewed towards wealthier, home-owning, holiday-taking people, that鈥檚 not a mistake 鈥撎� the lifestyle choices of people earning more than 拢28,000 a year are disproportionately important.

This month I learned鈥�

鈥� it doesn鈥檛 matter how big or clever you are, if you want to be the boss of common waxbills (Estrilda astrild), you need really red feathers. A study found that a waxbill鈥檚 social rank or dominance was linked to how richly red a bird鈥檚 chest feathers were, but not the bird鈥檚 size, intelligence, stress tolerance or how aggressive they were. The finding suggests that the redness of their chest feathers could be an honest signal 鈥� an indication of how healthy the birds are, because they have the ability to make such gorgeous colours. But I鈥檝e always been quite sceptical of honest signals 鈥� perhaps it鈥檚 just a quirk of waxbill鈥檚 tastes, and they simply prefer individuals with redder feathers.

Newly described species of the month

Say hello to Octopus djinda, a newly recognised species of octopus found in the waters of south-west Australia. A study of the animal鈥檚 genes and the number of suckers it has along its arms has revealed that it is distinct from Octopus tetricus, a species from around east Australia and New Zealand that it was previously lumped with.

Lumping octopuses together is pretty common, especially in fishing statistics, at the Western Australian Museum told me. 鈥淪pecies are often lumped together, making potentially meaningful information accessible,鈥� he says. 鈥淭his is a major problem when trying to interpret catch trends, especially with increasing fishing pressure and climate change.鈥�

Although O. djinda has only now been identified as a species, it has been exploited for years by Australia鈥檚 largest and fastest-growing octopus fishery. The hope is that formal recognition will inform efforts to sustainably manage fishing of the species.

Other wildlife news

• How the UK and Ireland got their ghostly white barn owls
• Hear these honeybees 鈥渟cream鈥� in alarm when a hornet attacks their hive
• See the first footage of the black browed-babbler since it was rediscovered in Indonesia after 172 years
• Some rockfish can live for 200 years 鈥� and now their genomes are giving us clues to how they do it

The long read

Your long read this month is this delightful piece about an elephant dictionary 鈥� a directory of behaviours and vocalisations that can help you speak elephant. Elsewhere, I enjoyed listening to this episode of the Royal Horticultural Society鈥檚 podcast, and I鈥檝e been dipping into , an absorbing coffee table book that juxtaposes images of birds from science, art and design in thought-provoking combinations.

CLIMATE talks are arenas of high emotion because, fundamentally, they are about life, death, money, family and people鈥檚 homes. I saw this emotion in the bleary eyes of the sleep-deprived negotiators at COP26 and heard it in the chants of protesters outside the summit鈥檚 venue each morning.

Whether they were activists, negotiators or ministers, most of the people I met in Glasgow were steadfast, hard-working and resolutely uncynical. 鈥淚t鈥檚 two weeks away from your family, from your friends, eating very bad food and not sleeping,鈥� says Kristin Qui, a negotiator for Trinidad and Tobago. The day before, 11 November, she had started work at 8am and finished negotiations at 10pm. 鈥淭hat was an early finish,鈥� she says.

鈥淭here鈥檚 a lot of rhetoric about the science, but some just want to erase any references to it鈥�

Qui was negotiating at the summit on behalf of the Alliance of Small Island States, a coalition of 39 countries, largely from the Caribbean and South Pacific, including Jamaica, Tuvalu, and Antigua and Barbuda. On 8 November, Tuvalu released a recorded message from foreign minister Simon Kofe, delivered knee-deep in the sea at Funafuti, to remind the summit of the impacts of climate change.

For those attending COP26 in person, 鈥渘egotiations are not only physically exhausting but emotionally exhausting too鈥�, says Qui. 鈥淏ut you have to compartmentalise, because if you engage with that exhaustion your body is going to be like: I can鈥檛 do this any more.鈥�

Climate negotiations comprise public meetings and private talks. In public meetings, countries say which parts of the proposed climate deal they do and don鈥檛 like. 鈥淚t鈥檚 where the theatrics happen,鈥� says Qui. 鈥淏ut the real discussions happen in informal meetings where there are no facilitators.鈥�

鈥淭here鈥檚 a lot of rhetoric from leaders about the importance of [the target to limit global warming to] 1.5 degrees and the importance of science,鈥� says Frances Fuller, a negotiator for Antigua and Barbuda. 鈥淏ut then when you get down to some of the technical discussions鈥� there are other parties in the room that just want to erase any references to any foundation of real science.鈥�

It takes effort to stay calm. 鈥淗ere I have a job to do and if I were to go into hysterics right now nobody would listen to me,鈥� says Qui. This is harder to do at home, she says: 鈥淲hen you see that not enough is being done 鈥� you can鈥檛 compartmentalise.鈥�

Arafat Jamal, who works for the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, tells me that not enough money is given to lower-income nations to protect them against the worst effects of climate change that are happening right now 鈥� about 780,000 Sudanese people have been affected by flooding caused by heavy rain this year alone, for example.

Floods aren鈥檛 new to Sudan, but they are becoming more frequent and intense, causing a loss of homes, food and livelihoods. 鈥淭here are 16 million cows in the country,鈥� says Jamal. 鈥淏ut they are not equipped to deal with mud. They just stand there and stay stuck.鈥�

Last year, higher-income countries gave about $20 billion to lower-income nations to help them adapt to the effects of climate change. In Glasgow, they promised to double this annual figure by 2025, but many poorer countries at COP26 said this simply isn鈥檛 good enough.

Many people were frustrated with the summit鈥檚 inability to bring about more radical action. But COP26 wasn鈥檛 the only show in town. For the second week of November, Glasgow was also home to an alternative meeting: the People鈥檚 Summit, a gathering of activists and campaigners who shared their experiences of pushing for change.

One evening, Clara Ramos, a lawyer from Brazil who is part of the Parents for Future environmental movement, gave a talk on the legal action she is taking against S茫o Paulo鈥檚 state government over air pollution. 鈥淚 have two sons,鈥� she said during her presentation. 鈥淲ill their survival be harder than mine?鈥�

Ramos says her legal case will take 10 to 20 years, but that she is confident of eventual victory.

I found her determination, along with that of Qui, Fuller and Jamal, both resolute and contagious. COP26 was at times disheartening and nearly always overwhelming. But those disappointed with the summit鈥檚 outcome should take hope from the huge amount of work that took place 鈥� and is still happening 鈥� behind the scenes.

听

鈥淲HEN will leaders lead?鈥� asked Mia Mottley at the start of the COP26 climate summit on 1 November. More than 100 world leaders had gathered in Glasgow, UK, but it was the speech by the prime minister of Barbados that stood out. With Earth on course for 2.7掳C of global warming ahead of the landmark conference, Mottley warned that 2掳C would be a 鈥渄eath sentence鈥� for countries on the front line of climate change.

Impassioned speeches soon gave way to side deals on everything from deforestation to methane. They were non-binding, often missing key countries and replete with caveats. But they will make a difference, if followed with action. One analysis found they could lower 2030 emissions by 2 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide, about 5 per cent of 2021鈥檚 levels.

These pledges saw the first week of the conference end with momentum, despite campaigner Greta Thunberg deriding the summit as a 鈥淧R exercise鈥�. An estimated 100,000 climate protesters marched through Glasgow鈥檚 streets on 6 November.

鈥淚n a last, unexpected twist, India intervened to weaken pledges over ending coal use鈥�

Climate adaptation was meant to be the official theme at the start of the second week, but the surprise arrival of former US president Barack Obama, followed by US politicians Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Nancy Pelosi, meant that the US held much of the focus instead. While acknowledging progress in Glasgow, Obama said: 鈥淲e are nowhere near where we need to be.鈥�

The first draft of a final 鈥渃over decision鈥� 鈥� the agreement from the summit 鈥� arrived before sunrise on 10 November. It included plans to phase out coal and subsidies for fossil fuels, and 鈥渦rged鈥� nations to submit more ambitious plans in 2022, in a push to meet the 2015 Paris Agreement鈥檚 goals of keeping warming 鈥渨ell below鈥� 2掳C and pursuing 1.5掳C.

COP26 was in the 鈥渉ard yards鈥� of negotiations, as UK prime minister Boris Johnson said later that day, with differences over finance and more. Even the usually upbeat Johnson struggled to explain how to unblock the impasse.

Yet only an hour later, China鈥檚 special climate envoy Xie Zhenhua lifted the mood with a surprise announcement of a US-China agreement to raise the climate ambition of both countries in the 2020s. The declaration was light on substance, but it marked a vital shift after US president Joe Biden accused Chinese president Xi Jinping of a 鈥渂ig mistake鈥� in not attending COP26.

A new draft decision failed to materialise on 11 November, and it was reported that one bloc of countries had suggested deleting the entire section on cutting emissions. In the ensuing lull, people watched the cricket at the conference鈥檚 Pakistan pavilion. The Mexican delegation offered COP26 president Alok Sharma a bottle of tequila if the talks finished on time, at 6pm on 12 November. A new alliance of nations working to end future oil and gas extraction was launched.

COP26鈥檚 crunch came in the last 48 hours. It began with weakened language: the 鈥減hase out鈥� would now apply to fossil fuels that are 鈥渋nefficient鈥� and to coal use that was 鈥渦nabated鈥�, giving room for its use with carbon capture and storage. Countries were now 鈥渞equested鈥� instead of 鈥渦rged鈥� to revise their plans next year, sparking debate over the minutiae of which is the stronger verb.

The talks spilled over into 13 November. At a meeting on the final proposed text, nations listed grievances. 鈥淚t鈥檚 not perfect,鈥� said Tina Stege of the Marshall Islands. But none rejected it outright.

In a last, unexpected twist, at the final meeting to approve the decision, India鈥檚 environment minister Bhupender Yadav intervened. Coal should see a 鈥減hase-down鈥� not 鈥減hase-out鈥�, he said. China backed the change, but Switzerland, speaking on behalf of six countries, was applauded for expressing 鈥減rofound disappointment鈥� at the watered-down wording. The European Union said 鈥渃oal has no future鈥�. Stege said the change 鈥渉urts deeply鈥�. But, in a bid not to lose all that had been agreed, no one blocked the change.

Sharma said he was 鈥渄eeply sorry鈥� at the turn of events and stopped mid-sentence, visibly emotional. 鈥淗earing no objections, it is so decided,鈥� he said, and his gavel came down. The Glasgow Climate Pact was sealed.

Nearly 200 countries have made an unprecedented and historic pledge at the COP26 climate summit to speed up the end of fossil fuel subsidies and reduce the use of coal, after India pushed through an 11th hour intervention to weaken the language on coal.

Crucially, despite almost a fortnight鈥檚 negotiations that ran more than 24 hours late, the 196 countries meeting in Glasgow, UK, to issuing stronger 2030 climate plans next year in a bid to avert dangerous global warming.

Pledges at COP26 are expected to see Earth warm 2.4掳C this century, better than the predicted 2.7掳C predicted before the summit but still a rise that would bring extreme climate impacts and see countries overshoot their shared goals of 1.5掳C and 鈥渨ell below鈥� 2掳C.

The promise to 鈥渞evisit and strengthen鈥� new plans by the end of 2022 means the UK government hosting the summit can credibly claim to have delivered its aim of 鈥渒eeping alive鈥� the 1.5掳C target. 鈥淚t is a big moment,鈥� says Chris Stark from the , an independent group that advises the UK government.

Fresh plans submitted next year for curbing emissions in 2030 must be aligned with the 1.5掳C goal, an important new requirement that means those governments that fall short will have to justify why to their citizens. Australia, Brazil and Indonesia are among many countries whose existing plans are inadequate and will need to be strengthened.

Until today, coal and fossil fuel subsidies have never been explicitly mentioned in 26 years of treaties and decisions at UN climate talks, despite coal being one of the key drivers of global warming and .

The language in COP26鈥檚 final decision text, now known as the Glasgow Climate Pact, sees countries agree to 鈥渁ccelerating efforts鈥� on the phase-out of 鈥渋nefficient鈥� subsidies. In a dramatic last-minute intervention, minutes before the outcome was adopted, India proposed a watered-down version of the language on coal, changing to 鈥減hasing down鈥� of coal rather than 鈥減hasing out.鈥�

Despite several countries expressing anger at the last-ditch move, the weaker text was officially adopted. COP26 president Alok Sharma said he was 鈥渄eeply sorry鈥� for the way the final minutes unfolded, and was visibly emotional.听 The decision covers 鈥渦nabated鈥� coal, meaning coal could still be used when combined with carbon capture and storage.

The commitments made in Glasgow will disappoint many climate campaigners for falling short of putting the world on course to almost halve emissions by 2030, .

Experts said it was nonetheless a good outcome for one summit and a case of expectations being too high. 鈥淚t鈥檚 not enough. But this is a process. I would have loved Glasgow to have fixed the problem, but it won鈥檛 and it was never going to,鈥� says Stark. A path to a 1.5掳C future is now 鈥渉anging by a thread鈥� but 鈥渋s still there, which is amazing鈥�, he adds.

Michael Jacobs at the University of Sheffield, UK, who was previously an adviser to former UK prime minister Gordon Brown, says the most countries could achieve at COP26 was to admit their 2030 plans weren鈥檛 good enough and agree to return next year with better ones aligned to a 1.5掳C trajectory. 鈥淭hey鈥檝e done that,鈥� he says.

Money cast a big shadow over the summit, after it that high-income countries wouldn鈥檛 deliver their promise of $100 billion of finance a year to lower-income countries until 2023, three years late. Countries expressed their 鈥渄eep regret鈥� that only about , a quarter of which was for adapting to climate change. They also agreed to hash out a new plan in the next three years for what a future climate finance goal looks like beyond 2025.

Adaptation was a key issue that rose up the agenda at Glasgow, after being largely overshadowed by emissions cuts at past UN climate summits. This time, high-income countries agreed that by 2025 they must double adaptation finance to about $40 billion a year. And nations agreed to work out a new global adaptation goal in future talks.

The conference stopped short of accepting a proposal by a group of 77 developing countries and China, which called for a new fund for the highly charged issue of 鈥渓oss and damage鈥�. That would have been the first step to some form of financial compensation from higher-income to lower-income countries for extreme weather and other climate impacts such as rising sea levels. However, nations promised to continue talking about funding for 鈥渓oss and damage associated with the adverse impacts of climate change鈥�.

Countries also reached agreement on technical but important rules on the Paris Agreement that have proved intractable in the six years since the world鈥檚 first comprehensive global climate treaty was agreed. Chief among those are the rules governing a new global carbon market under 鈥淎rticle 6鈥� of the Paris accord, paving the way for a successor to a past scheme called the UN Clean Development Mechanism.

Other outstanding items in the 鈥淧aris rulebook鈥� were ironed out, including 鈥渃ommon timeframes鈥� for when countries issue new carbon targets. That will be every five years for a new target 10 years later, so 2025 for 2035, and so on. Transparency rules over reporting of emissions cuts were resolved too.

The final decisions were gavelled through by COP26 president Alok Sharma this evening after almost a fortnight of talks in Glasgow. That official approval followed 3 hours of many countries鈥� delegates listing their mixed feelings about the final deal: 鈥渋t鈥檚 not perfect鈥� but it does represent real progress鈥�, said Tina Stege, climate envoy for the Marshall Islands. Negotiators had worked overnight for several days in a row.

Earlier in the summit, countries struck a series of voluntary side deals on halting deforestation, stopping international financing for coal, blocking new oil and gas projects and curbing methane, a short-lived but powerful greenhouse gas.

The conference was attended at the outset by 120 world leaders, including US president Joe Biden and Indian prime minister Narendra Modi, who announced that India would hit net-zero emissions by 2070. Several other countries, including Australia and Saudi Arabia, also declared long-term net-zero goals on the eve of COP26, meaning about 90 per cent of world emissions are now covered by a net-zero target. 鈥淭he shift in the long-term outlook has been utterly dramatic,鈥� says Stark.

Countries agreed that next year鈥檚 UN climate summit will be held in Egypt.

Climate summits are long, complex and emotionally taxing. But for negotiators hailing from the island states facing the worst impacts of climate change right now, these talks are critical to the daily lives of everyone they love.

鈥淚t鈥檚 two weeks away from your family, from your friends, eating very bad food and not sleeping,鈥� says , on the final Friday of negotiations at the COP26 climate summit.

On Thursday she started work at 8am and finished negotiations at 10pm. 鈥淭hat was an early finish,鈥� she says. For the past two weeks she says she has averaged about 6 hours of sleep per night.

Qui is negotiating on behalf of the . It is a coalition of 39 countries, largely from the Caribbean and South Pacific, including Jamaica, Cuba, Fiji and Antigua and Barbuda.

鈥淲e are a group of very small countries that don鈥檛 have a significant amount of political leverage,鈥� says , a negotiator for Antigua and Barbuda. 鈥淏ut we have strength in numbers and the moral high ground 鈥� though that鈥檚 sometimes not enough to move the needle.鈥�

鈥淣egotiations are not only physically exhausting but emotionally exhausting too,鈥� says Qui. 鈥淏ut you have to compartmentalise, because if you engage with that exhaustion your body is going to be like: I can鈥檛 do this anymore.鈥�

Climate negotiations comprise both public meetings and private talks. In public meetings, countries say which parts of the proposed climate deal they do and don鈥檛 like. 鈥淚t鈥檚 where the theatrics happen,鈥� says Qui.

Meanwhile, smaller, closed-door meetings revolve around specific topics, such as climate finance and emission pledges, and are moderated by facilitators. Qui, for example, has spent COP26 negotiating Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, which details how carbon markets will work.

鈥淏ut the real discussions happen in informal meetings where there are no facilitators,鈥� she says.

These often happen late at night, says Qui. Fuller says that on Thursday night she had to search out a South African negotiator through the conference centre so they could have one final discussion about emission-cutting measures.

鈥淭here鈥檚 a lot of rhetoric from leaders about the importance of 1.5 degrees and the importance of science,鈥� says Fuller. 鈥淏ut then when you get down to some of the technical discussions鈥� there are other parties in the room that just want to erase any references to any foundation of real science.鈥�

It takes effort to stay calm. 鈥淗ere I have a job to do and if I were to go into hysterics right now nobody would listen to me,鈥� says Qui. This is harder to do at home, she says: 鈥淲hen you see that not enough is being done 鈥� you can鈥檛 compartmentalise.鈥�

is Jamaica鈥檚 environment minister and one of the co-facilitators of the negotiations. Much like Qui and Fuller, he says he has a job to do. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 have time to be worried about who doesn鈥檛 get it [the severity of climate change],鈥� he says. 鈥淚 have to be concentrating and ensuring they get it before we leave.鈥�

鈥淚f these negotiations weren鈥檛 difficult we wouldn鈥檛 need two weeks,鈥� he adds. 鈥淚 didn鈥檛 come here with an expectation of having some kind of grand nice affair鈥� we are pushing every second for a COP that is successful so that all our children and all of our grandchildren鈥� will look on what we did here and see that we saved them and not that we failed them.鈥�

Although COP26 was due to finish yesterday, the summit鈥檚 was released this morning and it is hoped that the final pact will be published later today.