The 1992 UK general election served as the inspiration for prime minister David Cameron鈥檚 2015 campaign and triumph, but it should also serve as a dire warning. John Major, too, won a stunning victory for the Conservative party that surprised everyone amid predictions of a knife-edge win for Labour. But he ran into trouble almost from the outset, and within five years suffered a crushing defeat at the hands of a Labour party which many commentators a few years earlier doubted could ever win again.

The parallels are eerie but they are not, of course, exact. There will be no 鈥淏lack Wednesday鈥� 鈥� no overnight loss of the Tories鈥� reputation for economic competence of the sort seen when the pound crashed in 1992. That said, there are signs that the much-vaunted British recovery is beginning to slow, which may result in some sort of gradual erosion.

What鈥檚 Europe done for us?

But that, at the moment, will probably be the least of Cameron鈥檚 problems, none of which have disappeared in a puff of smoke as the result of his triumph last night. The most obvious issue 鈥� and the one that caused so much trouble for John Major back in the 1990s 鈥� will be Europe. UK researchers look to the European Union for a large chunk of funding. The Conservatives have pledged to hold an in-out referendum on membership in 2017.

By my reckoning the number of Conservative MPs in the new parliament who will actively work for, or at the very least lean towards, Brexit (the UK quitting the EU) runs to around a third. The problem for Cameron is that there may a big difference between what his backbenchers (and, indeed, some of his front-bench colleagues) want and what his EU partners are prepared to give him by way of a deal that he can present as reason to stay in the union, amid concerns about migration and increased political union. That said, opinion polls (presuming anyone trusts them any more) suggest that voters will almost certainly vote to stay in if the government can unite behind whatever Cameron can come up with.

Demographic dangers

Just as problematic for him will be the promises he made, in an era where both the birth rate and the elderly population is rising, to protect health and, to a lesser extent, education spending during the campaign. Unless he and chancellor George Osborne really have discovered a magic money tree, resources will either have to be diverted from other budgets 鈥� including welfare, science and research (which has been ring-fenced so far) and public-sector payrolls 鈥� or conjured up by generating additional revenues, such as higher university tuition fees.

And then there are other issues that haven鈥檛 suddenly gone away. MPs, not least Tory MPs, realise that the UK faces an energy crunch and key decisions related to climate change, yet know that many of their constituents are as irrationally hostile to fracking and windfarms as they once were (and maybe still are). GM crops too will remain a hard sell. They are aware there is a housing crisis but can鈥檛 simply ignore the 鈥渘ot in my back yard鈥� sentiment that, together with the UK鈥檚 restrictive planning laws, makes a mass building programme where it鈥檚 most needed 鈥� in the south of England 鈥� all but impossible.

Cameron鈥檚 honeymoon, then, will be a short one. Put that together with his bare majority, and we will all be living, to cite that age-old Chinese curse, in interesting times for years to come.